Imagine living in a country where the news constantly warns of an impending attack from the West. For many Russians, this isn't a hypothetical – it's a deeply ingrained belief, fueled by state-controlled media and historical narratives. According to Colin Smith, a seasoned international relations and defense researcher who once served as a military attaché in Moscow, this conviction is not only widespread but actively cultivated by the Russian government.
Smith, who was ultimately expelled from Moscow, shared his insights in a recent interview, stating that the Russian public isn't debating if the West will invade, but when. He points to a collective national memory haunted by invasions from Napoleon and Hitler, leading to a pervasive sense of vulnerability. "In their minds, it's only a matter of time before history repeats itself," Smith explains. This isn't just idle speculation; it's a deeply held fear.
And this is the part most people miss: The narrative that NATO's expansion into the Baltics in 2004, and its perceived interest in Ukraine and Georgia, only intensifies this "paranoid psychosis," as Smith calls it. It's perceived as further evidence of Western aggression, reinforcing the belief that Russia is under constant threat.
Drawing on nearly three decades of experience in various US missions worldwide, including two postings in Moscow, Smith has had ample opportunity to observe and engage with Russian society. During his extensive travels and conversations with locals, he witnessed firsthand the depth of this conviction. "They genuinely believe that the West's ultimate goal is to destroy Russia and its power, and the only way to achieve that is to conquer Moscow," he says.
But here's where it gets controversial... Smith emphasizes the absurdity of this notion. "Why would NATO invade Russia? There's simply no logical reason to do so." He suggests that even if the experts advising Putin and his generals don't personally believe in an imminent NATO invasion, the strategic narrative they promote paints precisely that picture. This constant reinforcement creates a self-fulfilling prophecy, where fear and suspicion drive policy decisions. This echoes the pre-war narrative, where Russians were told Ukraine planned to join NATO and thus become a launchpad for a Western invasion – yet another former Soviet state turning against Russia.
Smith is adamant that Russia's underlying objectives haven't changed in the past decade: to sow discord within NATO and weaken the alliance. While he acknowledges that Putin may have initially entertained the idea of cooperation with the West, he believes that the perceived abandonment and missed opportunities of the 1990s led to a shift towards a more assertive, Soviet-style approach aimed at restoring Russia's perceived greatness.
"This is his way of trying to accomplish this," Smith states. However, he notes that Russia severely underestimated Ukraine's resolve and inadvertently spurred Sweden and Finland, historically neutral nations for 70-80 years, to seek NATO membership. "They want NATO to stop expanding, but instead they have persuaded two countries that have been neutral for 70-80 years to join..." he observes.
Looking ahead, Smith offers a cautious prediction for Russia's future. He acknowledges that the Russian economy has defied expectations, surprising economists who anticipated a collapse. He points out that economists often overlook Russia's burgeoning services sector, which was virtually nonexistent before due to a lack of disposable income. Now, with soldiers and their families receiving payments, a services-based economy, reminiscent of the US model, has emerged.
He believes this sector can thrive, at least as long as Russia maintains a strong partnership with China, which continues to purchase Russian goods like oil, energy, and technology, and facilitates technological exchange. "How sustainable this cooperation is is another question," Smith cautions. "One day, Russia will have to wake up and realize that China is not their friend either. What will happen to Russia then, I do not know, because it will be completely isolated from the world."
Interestingly, Smith also highlights that Russia has relatively little foreign debt compared to the United States, which holds a staggering USD 37 trillion. "Nobody questions our economy," he notes, creating a stark contrast that challenges conventional wisdom.
What do you think? Is the Russian fear of Western invasion genuine, or is it a manufactured narrative used to justify political actions? And how sustainable is Russia's economic reliance on China in the long run? Share your thoughts and opinions in the comments below!
