Picture this: the NFL's NFC landscape is shaking up like a tectonic shift, with powerhouse teams jockeying for position and underdogs lurking in the wings. But here's the kicker—what if the so-called contenders are more fragile than they appear? Dive in with me as we reshuffle the deck on who's truly poised to dominate, and prepare for some hot takes that might just redefine your bracket. The Athletic is bringing you live updates on the Eagles versus Packers showdown on Monday Night Football—check it out here [link to https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/live-blogs/eagles-vs-packers-live-score-updates-nfl-mnf-result/JObyRBa2u6cA/].
There was a moment on Sunday afternoon when the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams combined to outscore their foes by a staggering 56-0, showcasing their raw power. Now, both squads carry 7-2 records into their Week 11 clash in Los Angeles, setting the stage for fireworks. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions racked up over 500 yards for the second time this season in a convincing 44-22 win against Washington—details here [link to https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6792903/2025/11/09/lions-commanders-score-result-takeaways/]. And with the Super Bowl-winning Philadelphia Eagles heading to Green Bay for a Monday night thriller, it's high time we revisited who's on top in the NFC pecking order.
'I have more faith in Seattle and the Rams than in Philadelphia, purely because of how their quarterbacks are performing,' confided an executive from a rival team. That's the spark for our Pick Six column today, and we're not overlooking Tampa Bay or San Francisco, even if injuries might sideline them for now. Here's the full rundown:
• Re-evaluating the NFC top dogs
• Did the Colts make a blunder with that blockbuster deal?
• The Dolphins' unexpected twists
• Fallout from the Cardinals' quarterback switch
• Jets clinched a win, but is their coach on thin ice?
• Rapid-fire rundown: Sean Payton's hot streak
- Could the Seahawks and Rams be the NFC's elite? Let's break down the cream of the crop.
The exec I mentioned earlier believes the Rams and Seahawks have more versatile ways to rack up points and secure victories compared to the Eagles. They had high hopes for Green Bay at the start of the season—check out those preseason rankings here [link to https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6592419/2025/09/03/nfc-rankings-eagles-packers-cowboys-lions-executives/]—but now they're less confident in the Packers, despite their 5-2-1 mark. Tampa Bay's loss to New England raised some eyebrows about the Buccaneers, while San Francisco's injury woes seem insurmountable. Detroit, for their part, dominated Washington but lacked the inventive flair they had under Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator.
To make this clearer for newcomers, think of Expected Points Added (EPA) as a stat that measures how much a play or team boosts their scoring chances—higher is better, and it helps explain why some teams look unstoppable. Our updated top six NFC hopefuls are ranked below based on The Athletic's Super Bowl projection model as of Monday morning (odds have shifted since Sunday due to fresh data). Records and odds follow in parentheses.
• Rams (7-2, 29.2 percent): The Rams stand alone as the league's top-five team in EPA per play on both offense and defense. Their Super Bowl chances have nearly tripled from preseason, thanks to Matthew Stafford proving his back issues from camp are history. 'Stafford is playing as well as anyone at the position,' raved an opposing executive. Stafford's hitting personal bests in EPA per pass and air yards per attempt under the Rams. For beginners, air yards track how far passes travel through the air, which can indicate a QB's arm strength and decision-making. Puka Nacua's already a star in L.A., but newcomer Davante Adams—despite an oblique strain on Sunday—is tracking toward record highs in air yards per target (12.8) and receptions (11.5). 'Davante always positions himself perfectly, making it simple for the QB to connect,' noted a defensive coach. 'It's a far cry from DK Metcalf in Pittsburgh, who hesitates and second-guesses his reads.' Stafford and coach Sean McVay's 73 games together shine through in their NFL-low pre-snap penalties, a hallmark of McVay's schemes. The Rams have scored 34+ points in their last three games, demolishing San Francisco's defense in their worst outing of the year by EPA. They've leaned into 13 personnel (three tight ends) lately, even with Nacua back—could this disrupt Seattle's wild packages in Week 11?
The Rams aren't flawless. Their special teams, especially kicking, are dreadful, with the league's worst EPA differential on field goals (-31.8). That might bite them in close contests, like against Seattle, who lead in overall special teams EPA.
• Eagles (6-2, 19.5 percent): Philly wins 71 percent of games under Nick Sirianni, boasting two Super Bowl trips and a Lombardi Trophy in his four-plus seasons. They've already topped the Chiefs and Rams. At the deadline, they traded a third-round pick for edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, with guard Landon Dickerson and linebacker Nakobe Dean returning from injuries. Early season struggles led some to predict a 2023 repeat, when Brian Johnson lasted just one game as OC between Shane Steichen and Kellen Moore. Since then, rookie coordinator Kevin Patullo has boosted their offensive stats, though it's still evolving. '(Jared) Goff, when he's rolling downhill, is tough, and Stafford too,' said one exec. 'But Jalen Hurts doesn't give me that same vibe.' The Eagles have pivoted to more under-center snaps after losses to Denver and New York, slashing their rushing output—the lowest through eight games under Sirianni. Monday night against Green Bay could reveal a lot.
• Seahawks (7-2, 17.9 percent): Seattle's the first since 1980 and fourth ever to hit 30+ first-half points three times in a season, with eight games left. They've built leads like 38-3 vs. New Orleans, 31-7 vs. Washington, and 35-0 vs. Arizona. Their +103 point differential is a franchise high to date [tweet link: https://x.com/hawkblogger/status/1987704682484252870?s=42]. 'They've got elite talent,' praised an opposing coach. 'Even small roster details, like versatile tight ends on special teams, help. They're rock-solid situationally and aggressive on defense.' Under Mike Macdonald's second year, Seattle's a bruising force, with two violent fumble hits on Arizona's Jacoby Brissett leading to DeMarcus Lawrence's touchdowns. Offensively, Sam Darnold leads the NFL in EPA per pass in three of his best games, averaging 9.9 yards per attempt (a yard ahead of Drake Maye). He's tied with Stafford and Maye for most completions on 20+ yard throws (17 each), and tops in completion rate there (61 percent, vs. Hurts' 52 percent). 'No one saw this as a top-five offense coming in, but here we are,' said another coach. But here's where it gets controversial—some argue this run-and-gun style relies too heavily on big plays, which might not hold up in the playoffs against disciplined defenses.
• Lions (6-3, 14.7 percent): Dan Campbell took over play-calling from John Morton just in time for Washington's leaky defense, which gave up 8.7 yards per play to Seattle the prior week. Detroit averaged 8.0 yards per play vs. Washington, ranking sixth-highest this season. Interestingly, Morton led the top effort on that list in Week 2 against Chicago. So, what gives? 'Their loss to Minnesota last week sets off alarms for me,' warned a former head coach. 'Inconsistencies are concerning.' Campbell agreed and reclaimed play-calling, something he avoided when Johnson was in charge. 'Dan has enough on his plate without worrying about third-and-3 calls,' quipped a veteran coach. With a trip to Philly in Week 11, Campbell plans to keep calling plays despite the challenge. 'We can improve from here,' he said. Clearly, Johnson would be ideal, but the team draws its identity from Campbell. And this is the part most people miss—some wonder if Campbell's multitasking could backfire, potentially costing them in big games where precision matters most.
• Packers (5-2-1, 10.5 percent): Should losses to Cleveland and Carolina, plus a 40-point tie with Dallas, erode our trust in Green Bay? As the only team with multiple losses as 7+ point favorites, they raise eyebrows. 'They're unpredictable,' said an exec. 'They fix defense one week, then implode. They go deep, then drop a close one at home like 16-13 to Carolina. Coaches need to focus holistically.' Yet, they boast a 5-2-1 record, with Jordan Love leading in EPA per pass. 'He's a top QB, but he can cool off,' noted a defensive coordinator. '(Matt) LaFleur and Kyle (Shanahan) excel at adjusting calls. Green Bay's well-coached and designed.' For example, LaFleur's schemes often adapt mid-play, turning potential disasters into opportunities—think of it like a chess game where the board changes unexpectedly.
• Buccaneers (6-3, 5.0 percent): Tampa Bay's offensive EPA per play has slipped to 27th in their last three, after seventh through Week 6. Against New England, their defense surrendered four 50+ yard plays—the most since 2000, matching rare feats by the 2023 Broncos and 2015 Texans, both to the Dolphins. How do you feel about the Bucs now? 'Baker Mayfield excels in two-minute drills, so they can always steal wins,' said a coach. That's how they scraped four early victories by nine combined points. They've crushed the 49ers and Saints since, but losses to Detroit and New England, plus injuries to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, and linemen, could derail them against Buffalo and the Rams.
• 49ers (6-4, 2.4 percent): San Francisco brushes off Tampa's woes—they're missing Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and more. Their 42-26 loss to the Rams was their worst in the series since 2018 blowouts with backups. Mac Jones has helped lately, but not Sunday. Injuries have crippled their depth, making every game a uphill battle against loaded opponents.
- The Colts shelled out big for Sauce Gardner in an age when elite corners don't dominate as they once did. Was it worth it?
From Indy's view, the deal's straightforward: they're securing a young talent under contract until 2030, untouchable in free agency. With starter Charvarius Ward back post-bye, coordinator Lou Anarumo can pair Ward/Gardner against Kansas City and playoff foes—a strong duo at a historically tough position. 'Now, facing Philly, you challenge A.J. Brown,' said a defensive coach. Gardner's drive and breakup of a third-down pass from Atlanta's Michael Penix Jr. to Drake London in Germany showcased his athleticism—he nearly picked it off, as Kurt Warner noted on NFL Network. Sauce nearly snagged his first Colts pick [tweet link: https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1987558338939265071?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw]. The trade signals contention to the locker room, rewarding veterans who endured tough times. While first-rounders are tempting, the Colts won't draft high enough for elite QBs, and Anthony Richardson's experience deters that. Daniel Jones might be a smarter pick, and they've found stars post-first round, like their O-line and Jonathan Taylor.
'They needed a corner badly, so it makes sense,' said an exec. 'Owner Jim Irsay's passing—they're all-in. Maybe they can trade Richardson. But I've never been blown away by Gardner. We preferred (Derek) Stingley.' If Gardner were Stingley, the Jets might've kept him. The Colts grabbed who they could. 'The Jets erred in paying him and cut ties,' said an offensive coach. My worry? Indy overpaid for a good but not great player at a position where one star matters less now. Twenty years ago, with offenses limited to two backs, a blocking tight end, and two wideouts, an elite corner could neutralize half the pass threats. 'You could shadow Randy Moss and limit him to 60 yards and a TD,' the coach explained. 'Not anymore—George Kittle or Travis Kelce could feast for 150 yards.' Modern offenses use three wideouts, athletic tight ends, versatile backs, and seven-on-seven training. An elite corner now disrupts less of the pass game. Plus, shadowing top receivers complicates disguises in zone coverage. 'Traveling him forces adjustments—linebackers shift, techniques change,' the coach added. 'You paid top dollar for a star, but at what cost to scheme flexibility?' But here's the controversy—some argue Gardner's elite speed and instincts justify the price, potentially turning the Colts into a shutdown secondary powerhouse. What do you think: overpay or smart investment? Share in the comments!
- The Dolphins are brimming with surprises lately. What's owner Stephen Ross plotting next?
Deciphering Stephen Ross's mind is like trying to solve a riddle. The owner fined for tampering with Tom Brady and Sean Payton also faced claims of offering $100,000 per loss to coach Brian Flores in 2019 for better draft picks—an investigation cleared it as not serious [link to https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3470950/2022/08/02/dolphins-lose-draft-picks-fined-tampering-investigation-brady-payton/]. 'Ross seems unsure, from alleged loss incentives to Brady marina schemes,' joked a coach. The Dolphins defied norms by retaining Mike McDaniel while firing GM Chris Grier (who'd been there since 2000) [link to https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6642754/2025/10/31/miami-dolphins-chris-grier-departure/], and routing Buffalo in Week 10 six days later [link to https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6792219/2025/11/09/bills-dolphins-score-result-takeaways/]. What's brewing in Miami? One theory: Ross waits until after 2026 to decide on a full reset—new coach, GM, QB. Ditching Tua Tagovailoa now hurts cap and cash. Admitting McDaniel was wrong ignores his 70-point explosion against Denver in 2023 (second-most ever). Ross admires McDaniel's scheming and his knack with Tua, per sources. 'That's why the coach gets a long leash—they're committed to Tua,' said a coach. 'But if they flop next year, Ross might flip everything, as he should've.' McDaniel's offense hit 0.27 EPA per play vs. Buffalo, eighth-best against Sean McDermott in 154 games. Without Tyreek Hill (IR, likely out in 2026), they're 22nd in season EPA. 'They lack the weapons or QB to repeat 70 points,' another coach noted. And this is the part most people miss—Ross's patience might backfire if Tua's injuries persist, turning Miami into a rebuilding project sooner than expected.
- Could Kyler Murray head to baseball next? It's tough imagining another NFL team investing heavily in him or guaranteeing a starting role.
Arizona's choice to start Jacoby Brissett (and IR Murray) didn't matter in Week 10 against surging Seattle—they might've lost with 2008 Kurt Warner. But long-term, it changes everything. The staff prefers Brissett, a 32-year-old veteran, over Murray, the 2019 top pick earning 7x more. Why? 'He engages the tight end (Trey McBride) better, spots the ball faster, timing's sharper,' said a coach. Brissett enables their under-center offense, boosting productivity post-Seattle. So, what's Murray's future? With $36.8 million guaranteed next year and $19.5 million in 2027 vesting March 22, 2026, unlikely he's back. 'They'll be shocked if they trade him,' said an exec. No team walks from $37 million, but would Murray accept backup? 'As a reserve in Cincinnati or Pittsburgh? Different schemes,' a coach questioned. 'Behind Lamar Jackson, maybe? Is he a starter anymore? Intriguing. Would Miami?' Murray turns 29 soon. The MLB A's hold his baseball rights from a 2018 ninth pick, before he chose football. In 2018, he hit .296 with 10 homers in 51 games as Oklahoma's centerfielder. 'Would the Jets try? Or baseball?' asked another exec. For example, imagine Murray swinging for the fences like he throws— a potential crossover star, but at what cost to his NFL legacy?
- The Jets secured a Sunday win, but has rookie coach Aaron Glenn already stumbled?
After trading stars Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, the Jets stumbled upon an unsustainable win formula in their first game without them: a 27-20 triumph over Cleveland with under 170 yards and zero turnovers [link to https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6792037/2025/11/09/browns-jets-score-result-takeaways/]. They're the first since 1940 to win that way, per stats— the 1943 Lions tied scoreless under similar conditions. Victory aside, the Jets are riddled with uncertainties. The deadline deals fuel QB pursuits next season, but do they signal a power shift after a 0-7 start under Glenn, who pushed for Aaron Rodgers-to-Justin Fields swap and struggled to elevate defense? 'They quieted the offseason noise—re-signed Sauce, Garrett Wilson, seemed set,' said an exec. 'Then 0-7, owner Woody Johnson's public jabs at Fields [link to https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6737353/2025/10/21/new-york-jets-owner-woody-johnson-aaron-glenn/], poor game management, Glenn's media bristling.' Then, bombshell trades. As a former Jets first-rounder with clout, hired before GM Darren Mougey, Glenn's leverage wanes. 'It's shifting—GM builds now, owner approves,' the exec said. 'Those trades? Not with 4-5 wins.' They hint Glenn needs more time. Will Johnson grant it, or factor Rodgers fallout [link to https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6288047/2025/04/17/aaron-rodgers-aaron-glenn-jets-criticism/] as a strike? Mougey's five first-rounders over two drafts complicate evaluations. 'GM gains power, but owner complicates it,' the exec added. Could this be the Jets' tipping point toward stability, or a recipe for more chaos? Share your take—has Glenn lost the room?
- Two-minute drill: The Broncos' red-hot streak cools off a bit
Denver's seven-win run mirrors Sean Payton's Saints path to Super Bowl in his fourth year. The chart below compares their point differentials from 2006-09. But key difference: Broncos win on defense despite Payton's offensive oversight; Saints did the opposite, with defense catching up. Payton needs Denver's offense to catch fire for Super Bowl hopes. Against the Raiders, you might wonder how they won seven straight—barely. Averaging 8.2 points per win ranks 54th of 58 such streaks since 1970. Payton had Drew Brees in New Orleans; here, it's struggling Bo Nix. 'Young QBs' paths aren't straight,' said a defensive coach. 'Like stock prices.' Nix shone last year, struggles now. 'Up and down—he scrambles 30 yards, then misses wide-open third-and-2, or throws a beauty then sacks foolishly.' Brees had 58 starts and a Pro Bowl pre-Saints. Nix is early. But here's where it gets controversial—some say Nix's athleticism will break through, making Denver's defense a springboard; others fear he's a bust without elite weapons.
• Pats' streak surpasses: New England's 28-23 win over Tampa [link to https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6792116/2025/11/09/patriots-buccaneers-score-result-takeaways/] extends to seven, averaging 11.6 points—tied for 35th. They rank second offensively, sixth defensively since Week 4. Denver's 17th on offense, second on D. Rookie Day 2 draftees TreVeyon Henderson (55, 69-yard runs) and Kyle Williams (72-yard catch) scored three 50+ yard TDs, tripling the league's total for such players. Only Chicago's Luther Burden III matches one.
• Dart's return looming: Jaxson Dart's debut [link to https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6672775/2025/09/29/jaxson-dart-debut-giants-hits-injury/] suggested Russell Wilson returns unless Dart learns protection. His concussion in the 24-20 loss to Chicago [link to https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6792355/2025/11/09/giants-bears-score-result-takeaways/] might force that. New York joins the 2020 Chargers as 2-4 after 10 games, blowing four double-digit leads on the road (NFL's 50-7-1 otherwise).
• Bills' slump: Buffalo lacked trade deadline energy, seeming demotivated post-Super Bowl push. They bounced back vs. Carolina, dominated Kansas City [link to https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6770739/2025/11/03/bills-chiefs-nfl-super-bowl-odds-afc-pick-six/], but flopped 30-13 at Miami, echoing losses to New Orleans, New England, Atlanta.
• Washington's Jets parallel: An NFC coach likened Washington—down 3-7 after 44-22 loss to Detroit—to Rex Ryan's Jets: big free agents led to title games, then decline. Jets went 8-8, 6-10, 8-8, 4-12 under Ryan. Unlike Ryan's Mark Sanchez, Washington's had Jayden Daniels, but less since his elbow dislocation. Another coach called it a 'perfect storm' with new owner, stadium push, and personalities like Magic Johnson. Could this be Washington's low point, or the start of a rebuild?
• Shough shines: Tyler Shough hit 70 percent with two TDs, no INTs, 10.4 YPA vs. Carolina in his second start. Late-down prowess included a 62-yard TD to Chris Olave (42 air yards, 3.2 seconds), 30-yard to Juwan Johnson (19 air, 4.0s), 52-yard (20 air, 5.8s). Second starts are tricky—Drew Lock tops EPA, Case Keenum second, Kyle Allen fourth. Shough's 23rd of 128. A promising step for New Orleans' second-round pick. For context, second-start heroes like Lock proved fleeting, but Shough's pocket presence hints at potential.
What do you think—will the Rams and Seahawks eclipse the Eagles for NFC supremacy, or is this just hype? Do you agree the Colts overpaid for Gardner, or see it as a masterstroke? Should Murray chase baseball dreams, or fight for an NFL comeback? And has Glenn's Jets tenure hit a wall already? Drop your opinions in the comments—we'd love to hear the debate!
